Fed Debate on Neutral Rate Misses the Bigger Picture

First, “What’d You Miss” Bloomberg interview with Joe Weisenthal:

Link here if video not working.

Second, new Bloomberg column:

Federal Reserve policy makers are debating whether to stop tightening monetary policy when interest rates reach a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restricts growth. At this point, there is no easy answer, but central bankers should de-emphasize the level of rates at which they would pause and instead focusĀ on the economic conditions that justify a pause.

Continue reading on Bloomberg Opinion.

Finally, recent data tells a familiar story with contained inflation and strong growth. Calculated Risk reports some recent estimates placing third quarter GDP growth in a range from a low (New York Fed) of 2.2% to a high (Atlanta Fed) of 4.4%. Assuming the reality splits the difference at 3.3%. That is a growth rate that easily keeps the Fed hiking, but the inflation numbers moderate the pace of hikes to the Fed’s gradual path. The status quo holds.

I will have more on the recent data flow Monday. Until then, have a great weekend!