Sorry for the limited Fed watching this week. I needed to shift gears to my Portland event, the Oregon Economic Forum, for a few days. That said, I still managed to write for Bloomberg this week:

The minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting confirmed speculation that Federal Reserve policy makers are leaning toward pushing interest rates above levels considered to be neutral, which neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. That sounds ominous, but it is important not to worry too much yet over the prospect of restrictive policy.

Fed forecasts are a projection, not a promise. If the economy stumbles, odds are the Fed will react appropriately and ease policy. There, however, is an important exception to this rule. If inflation looks to be stirring, the Fed will likely tighten down the clamps. That’s when the real worrying should start, but the Fed does not appear near that point yet.

Continued here at Bloomberg Opinion.

I should be back into the swing of things next week. Have a great weekend!