Experts Warn that We Need to Prepare Now →

Socio-Economic Resilience is Key to Recovery After a Disaster Strikes

Josh Bruce OPDR Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience The Ford Family FoundationNo one likes to think that he or she will ever experience a catastrophic event — a natural or manmade disaster that puts lives and communities at risk. Yet we’ve seen it happen again and again — Superstorm Sandy, Hurricane Katrina, the tsunami in Japan, the earthquake in Haiti. Closer to home, we’ve had forest fires in Southern and Central Oregon, train derailments in Eastern Oregon, flooding at the coast and, decades ago, an explosion in Roseburg when a truck loaded with fertilizer and dynamite caught fire.

The reality is that catastrophic events can happen anywhere, at any time. When we talk about a regional disaster in the Northwest, the first thing that comes to mind is a major earthquake. It’s not just a distant possibility. Scientists warn that the next rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, located just off the Pacific coast, may happen in the next 50 years. And it could be devastating — a 9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami would wreak devastation from the coast to the Cascades.

We don’t know how or when disaster will strike, but we do know that we need to start getting ready now. The Ford Family Foundation is joining this effort as it embarks on a project to explore socio-economic resilience in rural communities in Oregon and Northern California.

Socio-economic issues — social and financial realities that make up quality of life — are deeply affected by disasters of all kinds. If we are to have healthy communities, we also must have the ability to deal with disasters if they strike. We call that ability “resilience,” and it’s all about making people, communities and systems better prepared to withstand catastrophic events of all kinds. It’s about being able to bounce back more quickly — sometimes even stronger.

This issue of Community Vitality explores a host of issues relating to community resilience. We look at what Oregon is doing to prepare for a potential earthquake and an article on what neighborhoods are doing to build resilience. We also talk with a Ford Opportunity Scholar about her work in Haiti, and to a high school student about her efforts to set up a teen Community Emergency Response Team in her town.

Particularly vulnerable
These kinds of efforts are of vital importance. Although rural communities are used to depending on themselves to some extent, they are particularly vulnerable to large-scale disasters because of fewer resources and access to help during the recovery process.

Communities are perhaps the most important element in a successful recovery from disaster. A survey from the Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience (OPDR) found that Oregon residents have more confidence in local efforts to support resilience than national or state-level efforts. This perception seems to be borne out in the wake of actual disasters. In the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, for example, 31% of the people affected reached out to nearby friends, family and neighbors for help, according to a recent poll from the AP and the University of Chicago. Only 17% reached out to government programs.

Economic development and physical infrastructure, of course, play a big role in recovery efforts, according to the same report. But interestingly, recovery rates after Superstorm Sandy often differed in adjacent neighborhoods — even though they had similar economic and structural resources. The difference? Social resources. Community bonds. Trust. This connectedness could be drawn on, resulting in a faster recovery.

But still, economic resilience is crucial; Oregon respondents to the disaster resilience survey ranked medical services, utilities, and grocery/drug stores as critically important both before and after a catastrophic event. They also expressed concern regarding current conditions of those services. If economic resilience is already at risk, the aftermath of a catastrophic event becomes even more dire.

Earthquake. Fire. Chemical spill. Train derailment. It is up to us to plan for these events now, so our communities will be in a better position to deal with them should they happen. It’s time for us to start figuring out what we can do to prepare. By building resilience, we can prevent disasters from becoming community catastrophes.

Article reprinted with permission; Community Vitality Publication, Spring 2014, © 2014 The Ford Family Foundation. For the full Community Vitality edition of  ”The Time to Prepare”, visit http://www.community-vitality.org/Spring2014TimeToPrepare.html

About the Author: David Frohnmayer was president of the University of Oregon from 1994 to 2009. He served as Oregon’s attorney general from 1981 to 1991. He is a former member of The Ford Family Foundation board of directors.

ARE YOU PREPARED? The First Minutes After a Quake

Time seems to slow as the soil liquefies, bridges collapse and buildings collapse

The BBC video “The Next Megaquake” dramatizes how devastating the earthquake could be for the Northwest. The segment beginning at the 37-minute mark is especially compelling. 

Yumei Wang vividly remembers being in a lighting store in California during an earthquake. The ceiling was covered with chandeliers and other lighting fixtures. “The shaking made the whole ceiling sway,” she says.

And though it was only seconds, Wang, who is now the earthquake risk engineer for the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, described the experience as interminable.

A feeling of time slowing, hyper awareness and vivid, detailed memories — sometimes called flashbulb memory — is common for people who experience earthquakes.

Most earthquakes in recent memory on the West Coast have lasted seconds to a few minutes, but the predicted 9.0 Cascadia earthquake event is expected to rock 600 miles from California to Canada for three to five minutes. Wang says that, like rings from a pebble thrown in a pond, the seismic waves from an earthquake emanate outward three-dimensionally, and scientists estimate that very strong shaking and damage from the Cascadia quake will reach 100 miles inland, essentially to the Cascade Range.

Survivor Memories

Here’s what survivor memories might capture during those initial minutes.

It may not immediately appear to be an earthquake. People on the coast nearer the epicenter may feel like they were in a building just hit by a truck and will have a hard time just standing upright. People who are farther away from the coast may find themselves walking like they’re drunk. Water-saturated, sandy soil may liquefy during the shaking and temporarily become quicksand.

“It’s not like the Tarzan movie. Things won’t disappear, but they will sink a few feet,” Wang says.

Depending on how close they are to the coast, people who are driving and already in motion may not notice the shaking ground. Violently swaying power lines may be their first clue. Roads and bridges will be damaged. Many bridges across the state will collapse.

Earthquakes don’t necessarily make noise, but buildings will creak and groan with the shaking. Household items such as refrigerators and desks may move across the room, shelves may topple, dishes and wall hangings may fall. Windows, chimneys and architectural decorations could topple off buildings.

“That’s why it’s important to not run out of buildings, but duck, cover and hold,” Wang says, adding that you should orient your face away from windows, which can fall and break into the building.

Infrastructure that communities rely on will also be affected, and most basic services will be severely disrupted. “Waste water and water systems always get hammered in earthquakes,” Wang says. Water pipes can burst or crack; plumbing and wiring for electricity and gas will likely be down too.

Small, wood-frame buildings and homes have enough flexibility that most of them will survive the quake. But houses not anchored to their foundations may slide off, breaking water, sewer and gas connections. One of the bigger worries with wood homes is fire. Firefighters may not be able to reach the home in time, and even if they come, the water may not.

Old masonry buildings, like many historic government buildings and schools, often weren’t built or updated with adequate reinforcement. These can collapse within seconds of the shaking, Wang says.

“I’ve been to many earthquakes. It’s stressful and sad when basic services are out,” Wang says. “But it’s worse when there have been mass casualties of students in a school.”

The Chart Community Vitality The Ford Family Foundation OPDR Oregon Partnership for Disaster ResilienceMonths, even years later basic systems could still be down.

Those first months afterwards will be a challenging time for the Northwest, says Wang.

“The shaking will probably be something people never forget, but water and warmth will be major concerns afterwards,” she says. Often, earthquake survivors feel like the ones who died were lucky.

If an earthquake were to hit our region tomorrow, next month or even next year, Oregonians’ basic services would be down for a long time.

Estimates range from one month to a year, and up to three years along the coast, for water systems to regain functionality, according to The Oregon Resilience Plan. Electricity could be down for one to three months in the valley, but on the coast, it could take up to six months to get back to normal. Healthcare facilities at the coast could take as long as three years to restore.

“The good news is that most people won’t die, and the other part of the good news is that we haven’t been hit yet. So preparing is a smart option,” Wang says.

Earthquake experts like Wang are beginning to see politicians and the public take notice of their research and warnings. Things are starting to happen: The Governor’s Oregon Resilience Task Force is looking at The Oregon Resilience Plan to determine which preparations should happen and in what order.

Private citizens can help, too, by having emergency supplies and plans in place for their own families, and by demanding their public utilities are prepared.

Oregon can leverage this threat into a culture of readiness. “We can do a lot to reduce the damage … it can be like saving for retirement,” Wang says. “Planning for these kinds of things that are eventualities is especially important sooner rather than later.”

Article reprinted with permission from Community Vitality Publication, Spring 2014, © 2014 The Ford Family Foundation. For the full Community Vitality edition of ”The Time to Prepare”, visit http://www.community-vitality.org/Spring2014TimeToPrepare.html