Predicting the NCAA Tournament requires knowledge about the selection process, historical decisions made by the committee, the criteria that the committee uses, each team’s statistics, and a little bit of luck. Aside from a team’s record and conference standing, the NCAA selection committee tend to stress quality wins, non-conference strength of schedule, how teams performed with and without injured key players, and RPI as well. Once the committee has selected the top 68 teams for the tournament, they rank each team from 1-68 and give them a seed. Finally, each seed is placed in one of four parts of the bracket, the East, Midwest, South, and West respectively. This stage is largely determined by geographic location but the committee also does not place too many teams from the same conference in the same bracketed region. When both of those criteria are not a factor, the committee places teams on the bracket by their rank, for example, they will not put the best 1 seed, the best 2 seed, and the best 3 seed in the same region. The following table shows my predictions for the NCAA Tournament if it started right now. I ranked and seeded each team using the committee’s criteria and my criteria. The highest ranked team is at the top of each group of seeded teams, for example, Villanova is the #1 overall seed, and Gonzaga is the worst #1 seed and closest to becoming a #2 seed.
KEY:
1, 2, 3, etc. = Seeds
Blue Text = Automatic bid as conference champion
EAST REGION
1. Villanova |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
16. Mt. St. Mary’s/NCCU |
8. South Carolina |
_________ |
9. Wichita State |
5. Iowa State |
_________ |
_________ |
12. Marquette/Illinois St |
4. Purdue |
_________ |
13. Bucknell |
6. Michigan |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
11. Providence |
3. Louisville |
_________ |
14. Iona |
7. Maryland |
_________ |
_________ |
10. Middle Tennessee St |
2. Baylor |
_________ |
15. Troy |
MIDWEST REGION
1. Kansas |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
16. South Dakota St |
8. Virginia Tech |
_________ |
9. Arkansas |
5. Cincinatti |
_________ |
_________ |
12. Vermont |
4. Butler |
_________ |
13. East Tennessee St |
6. Virginia |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
11. Rhode Island |
3. UCLA |
_________ |
14. Winthrop |
7. Creighton |
_________ |
_________ |
10. Oklahoma State |
2. North Carolina |
_________ |
15. Texas Southern |
SOUTH REGION
1. Duke |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
16. Jacksonville St/ UNO |
8. Dayton |
_________ |
9. Seton Hall |
5. Florida |
_________ |
_________ |
12. UNCW |
4. West Virginia |
_________ |
13. Princeton |
6. St. Mary’s |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
11. Xavier |
3. Oregon |
_________ |
14. N. Kentucky |
7. Miami |
_________ |
_________ |
10. Michigan State |
2. Kentucky |
_________ |
15. Kent State |
WEST REGION
1. Gonzaga |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
16. UC Davis |
8. Northwestern |
_________ |
9. VCU |
5. SMU |
_________ |
_________ |
12. Nevada |
4. Notre Dame |
_________ |
13. Florida Gulf Coast |
6. Wisconsin |
_________ |
_________ |
_________ |
11. Kansas St / USC |
3. Florida State |
_________ |
14. New Mexico State |
7. Minnesota |
_________ |
_________ |
10. Vanderbilt |
2. Arizona |
_________ |
15. North Dakota |