Predicting the NCAA Tournament requires knowledge about the selection process, historical decisions made by the committee, the criteria that the committee uses, each team’s statistics, and a little bit of luck. Aside from a team’s record and conference standing, the NCAA selection committee tend to stress quality wins, non-conference strength of schedule, how teams performed with and without injured key players, and RPI as well. Once the committee has selected the top 68 teams for the tournament, they rank each team from 1-68 and give them a seed. Finally, each seed is placed in one of four parts of the bracket, the East, Midwest, South, and West respectively. This stage is largely determined by geographic location but the committee also does not place too many teams from the same conference in the same bracketed region. When both of those criteria are not a factor, the committee places teams on the bracket by their rank, for example, they will not put the best 1 seed, the best 2 seed, and the best 3 seed in the same region. The following table shows my predictions for the NCAA Tournament if it started right now. I ranked and seeded each team using the committee’s criteria and my criteria. The highest ranked team is at the top of each group of seeded teams, for example, Villanova is the #1 overall seed, and Gonzaga is the worst #1 seed and closest to becoming a #2 seed.

KEY:

1, 2, 3, etc. = Seeds

Blue Text = Automatic bid as conference champion

EAST REGION

1. Villanova	_________	_________	_________	_________
16. Mt. St. Mary’s/NCCU
8. South Carolina	_________
9. Wichita State
5. Iowa State	_________	_________
12. Marquette/Illinois St
4. Purdue	_________
13. Bucknell
6. Michigan	_________	_________	_________
11. Providence
3. Louisville	_________
14. Iona
7. Maryland	_________	_________
10. Middle Tennessee St
2. Baylor	_________
15. Troy

MIDWEST REGION

1. Kansas	_________	_________	_________	_________
16. South Dakota St
8. Virginia Tech	_________
9. Arkansas
5. Cincinatti	_________	_________
12. Vermont
4. Butler	_________
13. East Tennessee St
6. Virginia	_________	_________	_________
11. Rhode Island
3. UCLA	_________
14. Winthrop
7. Creighton	_________	_________
10. Oklahoma State
2. North Carolina	_________
15. Texas Southern

SOUTH REGION

1. Duke	_________	_________	_________	_________
16. Jacksonville St/ UNO
8. Dayton	_________
9. Seton Hall
5. Florida	_________	_________
12. UNCW
4. West Virginia	_________
13. Princeton
6. St. Mary’s	_________	_________	_________
11. Xavier
3. Oregon	_________
14. N. Kentucky
7. Miami	_________	_________
10. Michigan State
2. Kentucky	_________
15. Kent State

WEST REGION

1. Gonzaga	_________	_________	_________	_________
16. UC Davis
8. Northwestern	_________
9. VCU
5. SMU	_________	_________
12. Nevada
4. Notre Dame	_________
13. Florida Gulf Coast
6. Wisconsin	_________	_________	_________
11. Kansas St / USC
3. Florida State	_________
14. New Mexico State
7. Minnesota	_________	_________
10. Vanderbilt
2. Arizona	_________
15. North Dakota