MID-MAJORS THAT COULD BUST BRACKETS

Everyone loves a good upset. One thing that makes the NCAA Basketball awesome is that it is one of the few sports where every single team has a fair shot at the title. In college football, only four teams are given a chance and a huge advantage goes to schools in larger conferences. Who will be the next George Mason and VCU to make the Final Four as an 11 seed? Who will be the next Butler to make back-to-back national championship games as a mid-major 5 and 8 seed? Looking back at the Cinderella stories from past seasons helps predict successful mid-majors for future seasons. The five things those teams had in common were: generating steals and turnovers, having at least one three-point shooter that can get hot at any time, having experienced upperclassmen, having a point guard that distributes a lot of assists, and playing a challenging nonconference schedule with significant opponents. The following schools come from mid-major conferences and have the best chances to pull off upsets and become the next Cinderella story. Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Gonzaga, and St. Mary’s were left off this list because they are either mid-majors playing in a power conference or have been too relavent in the last decade to be considered a Cinderella. Wichita State is nearly in that same discussion.

21-5 (11-3) RPI: 16 BPI: 11 SOS: 45

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3

The Witchita State Shockers are always a familiar face in the NCAA Tournament. Gregg Marshall has taken the Shockers to the Final Four once, the Sweet 16 twice, and the Round of 32 five times during the last five years. Wichita State has underachieved all season but you can expect them to turn it up a notch soon. With wins over Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Houston, the Shockers should land an at-large bid if they do not win the American Conference Tournament.

22-5 (14-1) RPI: 26 BPI: 47 SOS: 91

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3

The Blue Raiders became the darlings of the 2016 Tournament by shocking Michigan State. In 2017, MTSU pulled off another upset. They return most of the players from those teams and may even be favored in their first round game of the tournament this year assuming they make the tournament. If they somehow do not win Conference USA, then they will very likely receive an at-large bid anyway. Middle Tennessee State has big wins over bigger schools already such as a 77-58 beatdown on Ole Mess and 66-63 road win at Vanderbilt. The Blue Raiders nearly upset then #15 Miami and highly ranked Auburn. MSTU played the 7th toughest non-conference schedule in the country this season and prepared for another run in Giddy Potts’ final season.

21-4 (13-1) RPI: 8 BPI: 24 SOS: 38

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4

The Rhode Island Rams pulled off a first round upset last year as an 11 seed and took Oregon, an eventual final four participant, down to the wire. Their upperclassmen hope to go further this season.  The Rams have yet to have a huge upset yet but they do have wins over Seton Hall and Providence. How can you ignore an RPI rating of 8 though?

20-7 (12-2) RPI: 60 BPI: 68 SOS: 98

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2

The Hilltoppers are always a team to fear when they have a spot on the bracket. Western Kentucky has arguably one of the best non-conference wins of any team in a 77-73 win over #3 Purdue in the Battle for Atlantis. A close loss to #1 Villanova and a solid win over SMU are also great resume boosts. Much like Middle Tennessee State, the Hilltoppers could see an at-large bid if they do not win the Conference USA Tournament.

20-10 (11-2) RPI: 165 BPI: 96 SOS: 251

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-4

The return of Dunk City could be exciting. Florida Gulf Coast were the ultimate darlings in 2013 when they became the first 15 seed ever to reach the Sweet 16. Last year they nearly upset 3-seeded Florida State and they may be a tough out this season as well. The Eagles tested themselves out of conference earlier this year. Their uptempo style of play is tough to prepare for. FGCU has already clinched the conference title, well before any other conference.

23-5 (13-3) RPI: 41 BPI: 56 SOS: 175

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-0

The Ramblers have the 9th best defense in the nation allowing only 62.8 ppg.  You might think that stat means nothing considering the conference that the Ramblers play in. However, they went to Florida and held the Gators to only 59 points in a 65-59 major upset. Florida scores 79.8 ppg too. Assuming Loyola wins the MVC, expect them to be a 12 seed that 5 seeds don’t want to play in the first round.

22-6 (12-1) RPI: 56 BPI: 50 SOS: 158

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2

The Vermont Catamounts have won 15 of their last 16 games. Although they are 0-2 against the top 50, they may hang around long enough to give their opponents a scare much like they did when they went to Rupp Arena losing a nail-biter to then #5 Kentucky 73-69. 

23-5 (12-2) RPI: 10 BPI: 22 SOS: 34

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2

Nevada has one of the best opportunities to win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament. Unlike many on this list, the Wolfpack will likely have a seed higher than their first round opponent. The Wolfpack have a top 50 win over Boise State and a top 20 win over Rhode Island. They nearly upset Big 12 powerhouses Texas Tech and TCU as well. Their average margin of victory is 12. Nevada owns the 27th highest scoring offense in the nation at 83 ppg led by twins Caleb and Cody Martin. Look for Nevada to be a possible sleeper as a 6, 7, or 8 seed this year.

22-5 (9-2) RPI: 51 BPI: 60 SOS: 148

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2

On the December 23rd, #6 Miami was 10-0 until they met the New Mexico State Aggies. New Mexico State dominated the entire game and won by 9. The Aggies are tough on the boards, grabbing 39.9 per game which ranks 22nd in the nation. They are also 4th in the nation on defense, giving up only 61.9 ppg. A WAC Tournament championship may still be required to get into the NCAA Tournament, but there is an outside chance of an at-large bid if they go 26-6.

18-9 (9-5) RPI: 130 BPI: 162 SOS: 270

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-1

The Wofford Terriers have yet to win an NCAA Tournament game but that could change this season if they beat out East Tennessee State in the Southern Conference. Wofford upset Georgia Tech at the buzzer earlier this season behind a 36 point performance by Fletcher Magee. A few weeks later they traveled to then #1 North Carolina and shocked the world with a 79-75 win. Wofford led for most of the game. If Fletcher Magee (22.3 ppg) and the Terriers can find some consistency, they will be feared on the bracket if they win their conference tournament.

22-5 (13-1) RPI: 66 BPI: 62 SOS: 242

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-2

East Tennesse State was a tough out last year and may be a pesky team to deal with once again. You don’t just go to #10 Xavier and lose by 2 unless you are a great team. They also sport a 15 point road win over conference foe Wofford, who beat #1 North Carolina a few weeks before conference play. If Desonta Bradford gets hot from three-point territory, look out!

22-4 (12-1) RPI: 44 BPI: 46 SOS: 186

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-1

Louisiana’s best win is over Iowa 80-71 so they are still without a top 100 win. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns are beating teams by an average of 12.3 points per game. They are clearly better than their competition.

22-7 (13-2) RPI: 81 BPI: 83 SOS: 234

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3

Belmont and Murray State are familiar faces to March Madness. Now that they are in the same conference, only one can join the mayhem this season. Belmont holds the edge so far. The Belmont Bruin’s non-conference schedule was brutal. Their wins include 69-60 over Vanderbilt, 69-63 over Middle Tennessee State, and 75-72 over Western Kentucky. They had gritty road losses to Washington 86-82, Providence 66-65, and TCU 87-76. This veteran group could be a popular upset pick as a 12 or 13 seed if they take care of business in the Ohio Valley Conference.