BUBBLE WATCH 2018
One of the most controversial topics every year are the last few teams that the Tournament Committee allows into the tournament. The Committee uses RPI, overall and non-conference strength of schedule (SOS), quality of wins and losses, record in road games, player and coach availability, and head-to-head results as criteria during the selection process. The last 9 years, every team with an RPI under 30 has made the tournament. Mid-majors that have an RPI between 31-40 received at-large bids only 14 out of 29 times (48.3%). Here is what the bubble looks like in February. If the tournament started right now, then the following teams are either on the bracket but with low 9, 10, 11, or 12 seeds, or they are on the outside looking in. All of these teams have little room for error based on these statistical comparisons.
The Last Seven Byes In The Tournament
21-5 (11-3) RPI: 19 BPI: 30 SOS: 100
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 6-2
19-8 (10-5) RPI: 48 BPI: 30 SOS: 65
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-4
17-10 (8-6) RPI: 37 BPI: 75 SOS: 19
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-6
18-9 (8-6) RPI: 62 BPI: 58 SOS: 70
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-5
19-8 (8-6) RPI: 55 BPI: 53 SOS: 97
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-7
19-8 (8-6) RPI: 54 BPI: 29 SOS: 107
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-7
18-9 (8-6) RPI: 49 BPI: 27 SOS: 44
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-9
The Last Four In The Tournament That Are Projected To Play In The Play-In Round
18-9 (8-6) RPI: 45 BPI: 122 SOS: 33
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
20-6 (10-4) RPI: 27 BPI: 55 SOS: 89
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-2
16-11 (6-8) RPI: 53 BPI: 43 SOS: 22
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 6-9
20-7 (12-2) RPI: 60 BPI: 68 SOS: 98
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
The First Four Snubbed Teams Out Of The Tournament
19-9 (10-5) RPI: 43 BPI: 51 SOS: 58
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
18-9 (7-7) RPI: 38 BPI: 50 SOS: 26
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
21-6 (11-4) RPI: 52 BPI: 54 SOS: 145
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
17-10 (7-7) RPI: 48 BPI: 52 SOS: 24
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-7
Teams On The Bubble If They Do Not Win Their Conference Tournament
22-5 (14-1) RPI: 26 BPI: 47 SOS: 91
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3
22-5 (9-2) RPI: 51 BPI: 60 SOS: 148
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2