Presenter(s): Taylor Ginieczki — Global Studies,Political Science
Faculty Mentor(s): Jane Cramer
Session: (Virtual) Poster Presentation
The last two decades have seen China become one of the biggest perceived threats to US national security. Fingers point to China’s economic rise, regional power-seeking, human rights abuses, and evolving nuclear capabilities as grounds for increased threat—with the latter meriting an “aggressive” US nuclear response. Yet seldom is it asked, “What is the cause of the deteriorating nuclear relationship between the United States and China?” Using defensive realist theory and process- tracing methodology, this thesis answers this question: American nuclear policy, specifically national missile defense (NMD). Part I begins by detailing the dire threat inflation present in American media, public opinion, and government rhetoric, where China is the unilaterally culpable “paper tiger.” Part I analyzes both states’ nuclear policies, revealing the astronomical discrepancy between rhetoric and reality. China’s “No First Use” posture is contrasted with the US’s rejection of nuclear deterrence, discarded in favor of nuclear war-fighting and This section then reviews the violated theory and nonsensical technology behind American NMD, ending with a US missile defense timeline that predates the current crisis with China—absolving China to instead implicate the US. Finally, Part II offers prescriptions from defensive realism: minimal nuclear deterrence, a no-first-use policy (ironically, like China’s), eliminated NMD, and increased transparency in Sino-American relations.