Henry Axon – October 6, 2022
As the war between Ukraine and Russia rages on, just about everyone on earth is feeling the impacts economically and politically. The country of Mongolia is certainly no exception. Nestled directly between China to the South and Russia to the north, Mongolia inevitably is at the very least indirectly forced into the conflicts of both nations.
Regarding the current war in Ukraine, Mongolia is walking a fine line. With a small and unsustainable economy, 84% of their exports are bound for China. An impressive 26% of imports, primarily grain are from Russia. (WITS 2022) While Mongolia has long sought to decrease reliance on Russia, their “third neighbor initiative” focusing on trade and alliance with Korea, Japan, and the US has only had limited success, and their economy still relies heavily on Russia and China. (Stanway 2022) Economically Mongolia has been forced to be careful in its continued dealings with Russia. Like the rest of the world, a fuel crisis is a real fear. For now, it seems that Mongolia will not be directly harmed besides a slight decrease in economic growth expectation from 5.1% down to 2.5% ( Odonbaatar 2022).
From a political perspective, the war has led to a tense situation as Mongolia chooses to pursue both relationships with the US as well as Russia and China by necessity. Most notably they were one of only a handful of nations to withhold from condemning Russia for their invasion. (Stanway 2022) While the Mongolian government remains neutral out of what they see as a necessity, the people of Mongolia have long protested the war ever since pandemic restrictions were lifted (Smith 2022). Perhaps this will Push the Government to commit to picking a side in the conflict, this is however unlikely due to the powerful economic and political ties between Ulaanbaatar and Moscow.
Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is in some a worst-case scenario for a landlocked nation like Mongolia which relies on trade. They are forced to trade through Russia and China and have very few options. While they continue to pursue new western allies, they are in a dangerous position with the watchful eyes of Moscow and Beijing watching. A move toward the west will isolate Mongolia from its most crucial partners, and a move toward Russia will lead to continued and increasingly powerful economic reliance on Russia and China.
Sources:
“Mongolia Trade.” Mongolia Trade | WITS Data, https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/MNG.
“Mongolia.” United States Trade Representative, https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/mongolia.
Odonbaatar, A. “WAR IN UKRAINE AND ITS IMPACTS ON MONGOLIA’S ECONOMY.” Friedrich Eibert Stiftung, Mongolian Institute for Innovative Policies, 2022, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/mongolei/19533.pdf.
Person, and David Stanway. “Mongolia’s East-West Balancing Act Buffeted by Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 3 Mar. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/mongolias-east-west-balancing-act-buffeted-by-russian-invasion-ukraine-2022-03-03/.
Smith, Marissa J. “Mongolia’s Razor’s Edge Relationship with Russia.” – Democracy and Society | IPS Journal, IPS Journal, 6 Oct. 2022, https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democracy-and-society/mongolias-razors-edge-relationship-with-russia-5859/.