How do species’ plasticity and evolution influence how species and communities respond to climate change?

We’ve begun several projects aimed at better understanding how adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity may influence species responses to climate change. Next steps will include investigating how adaptation and plasticity may also impact species interactions and community dynamics.

PERSIST: Predicting Evolutionary Rescue of a Species In Space and Time

Will rapid evolution potentially rescue species from climate change?

Adaptive evolution is a key means for populations to persist under environmental change. Yet, whether populations can adapt quickly enough to keep up with the rapid pace of changing climate remains largely unknown.

In a collaborative project, led by  Seema Sheth at NCSU, we are integrating evolutionary approaches with population models to investigate whether evolution can rescue populations from decline under environmental change. Specifically, we are performing a resurrection study comparing ancestors and descendants derived from seed of the native perennial herb, scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis), collected before and after a severe drought and heat wave in western North America.

 

We have transplanted seedlings from leading-edge, central, and trailing-edge populations into three common gardens at differing range positions and quantify natural selection on traits, additive genetic variances for traits and fitness, and differences in population growth rates and traits between ancestors and descendants.

Collaborators:

  • Seema Sheth (lead; NCSU)
  • Chris Muir (U Wisconsin)
  • Lluvia Flores-Renteria (SDSU)
  • Jay Sexton (UC Merced)

 

Community level plasticity

Led by Emily Cook, we have also been trying to scale up our thinking about adaptation and plasticity from model species (like monkeyflower) to multi-species communities. Emily is studying how annual plant species in northwest prairies, a threatened ecosystem due to decades of development, fire suppression, and introductions of nonnative species. We want to better understand which species exhibit plasticity in drought-related traits that could be helpful in ongoing restoration efforts.