In an attempt to project the population growth of the areas surrounding the schools in the year 2020, census data comparisons were conducted from years 2000 to 2010 and population change between that 10 year span was continued through 2020 to achieve a projected population change. Each census block was calculated based on its population in 2000 compared to the population in 2010. This was done by joining census info from 2000 to the current 2010 census attribute table. The field calculator was then used to find the difference in population, then calculate the percentage change by entering the proper mathematical query (PERC_CHNG = ([POP_CHANGE] / [Pop_2000]) * 100).
This is considered deductive reasoning, as we are using data that is already gathered and available to the user and is assuming the population growth/decline rate is continual enough to be accurate for the most part. Several factors can play into population change over a span of 10 years, from economic growth/decay to migration trends. By looking at just the last 10 years of population change and no other factors to predict the next 10 years, we are taking a basic approach in determining future population numbers, but can get an overall accurate general picture of how trends will go.
By conducting these calculations the following numbers were obtained:
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Arts & Technology Academy AVERAGE GROWTH RATE: 5.8%
Projected 2020 School-Age population: 6,759
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Buena Vista School AVERAGE GROWTH RATE: 10.1%
Projected 2020 School-Age population: 6,696
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Yujin Gakuen AVERAGE GROWTH RATE: 10.5%
Projected 2020 School-Age population: 8,772
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Charlemange AVERAGE GROWTH RATE: 7.8%
Projected 2020 School-Age population: 2,770
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The below maps are meant to be used in comparison and relation to the Final Lab Part 2&3 maps located here:
