A million deaths is a statistic. From Riyad, deaths and casualties in the Gaza strip and throughout Israel seems so small. Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) isn’t worried about blood on the streets, he’s probably thinking about the tightrope he now has to walk to preserve Saudi Arabia’s status as the leader of the Arab world and the “deal of the century”: normalization of relations with Israel.
The normalization has been years in the making. Emad Mekay wrote for the International Bar Association back in the early days of the Trump presidency about how Saudi and Israeli geopolitical interests have aligned in recent years. Both share a common enemy, Iran, and a common ally, the United States. Saudi Arabia, as well as several other Arab nations like Syria, Iraq, and Iran, do not diplomatically recognize Israel, which hamstrings any cooperation between them against Iran. MBS is eyeing a double win as extracting Israeli concessions for Palestine in exchange for Saudi recognition of Israel affirms Saudi soft power as the preeminent Arab power, a spot they currently hold, but also a potential defense agreement with the United States. Should such a Deal of the Century, as coined by former Egyptian leader Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, would secure Saudi Arabia militarily with American partnership, diversify the oil-reliant Saudi economy with Israeli investment, promote peace in the region with Saudi-Israeli cooperation, as well as isolate Iran. In other words, the biggest win Saudi Arabia can ask for.
Everything changed when Hamas attacked. In the face of the a massive Israeli retaliation, Saudi Arabia cannot stand behind Israel without alienating the Arab world Riyad leads. Depending on the severity of the Israeli response and whether atrocities will be committed in retaliation, Hamas, backed by Iran, could turn from the aggressor to the victim even among western media, additionally hamstringing Riyad. This MBS did the obvious choice and halted the negotiations. The coverages of the halt is interesting, as the different perspectives’ word choice in their English coverage highlights attitudes. The Times of Israel simply says that Saudis told the United States that they are halting talks with Israel. Halt conveys a sense of definitiveness, and also “told the United States” implies a circumvention of Israel, and places Israel in a passive position, which is curious because it could help portray Israel as the helpless victim, acted upon rather than the one acting, in this conflict. Al Jazeera, a Qatari state-funded news outlet, as well as Reuters, a western media outlet, uses the phrase “on ice”, which is much less final than “halt”, and focuses on Saudi Arabia’s pivot to dialogue with Iran. Saudi-Qatari relations has a rocky history, and both Al Jazeera and Reuters’ focus on Saudi-Iranian dialogue indicate Saudi intentions to keep their options open. They haven’t closed the door on Israeli normalization but also don’t want to be alienated should the situation spiral out of control into a conflict defined by cultural differences.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.
Image from Wikimedia Commons
Sources:
https://www.ibanet.org/article/D2659617-4CAB-4FE9-8B60-A971485EC3D6
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/14/saudi-arabia-puts-israel-deal-on-ice-amid-war-engages-with-iran-report
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudis-said-to-tell-us-they-are-halting-normalization-talks-with-israel/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-puts-israel-deal-ice-amid-war-engages-with-iran-sources-say-2023-10-13/
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Prince_Muhammad_of_Saudia.png