Election Forecasts by Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

This is a blog by a friend of a friend of mine who works for the New York Times. He has Aspergers and is a statistical genius.  He was able to predict the outcome of the 2008 election down to about 2,000 votes.  I like to check out his blog from time to time because my friend has told me that the way he can compute statistics in his head is absolutely unbelievable.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/july-24-the-incredibly-steady-presidential-race/?smid=pl-share

^ This is the post that I read today.  Nate has calculated Obama’s chances of winning the electoral college in November to be 65.9%, which is down from Monday’s forecast which was 66.9%.  I am so excited for November to come to see how close his predictions will actually be.  From what my friend as told me, he really knows what he’s doing.  I like to check his predictions fairly often because I trust his forecasts more than forecasts that come from mass media outlets.  He has no reason to inflate or deflate his predictions, so I believe him when he says 65.9%. However, the numbers are still so up in the air at this point in the race that it is very hard to tell.  Nate says that some polls show Romney pulling into a tie with Obama, while others say that Obama has a much larger lead over Romney than he had predicted.  I do believe though, that Nate is probably right on track with his forecast.

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